What I’m Watching for As the First Returns Come In
Jay Kuo's Substack guide to reading the 2026 midterm returns argues a blue wave is coming and the night's question is how big: he tells readers to ignore early calls and instead compare bellwether counties — Kentucky's 6th, Florida's 22nd, Hall County, Mahoning, Tarrant, Johnson — against their 2024 margins. Decision Desk HQ puts Democratic odds at 84 percent for the House and 65 percent for the Senate, with Kansas, Iowa, Ohio and Alaska the Senate coin flips.
