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Nebius shares slide as analysts cut targets over data center delays and big spending plans

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Summary

  • Nebius beat third-quarter estimates with $980.8 million in revenue but cut its 2026 revenue outlook to the low end of $3–3.4 billion and raised 2026 capex to about $27 billion.
  • The company plans $40–45 billion of 2027 capital spending, funded largely by customer prepayments and contract-backed loans, and forecasts 2027 revenue of $12–13 billion.
  • Its contract with Microsoft, worth up to $19.4 billion, is delayed at a Vineland, New Jersey data center, with phases pushed to Q2 2027.
  • Shares fell more than 40% in a month after the report, and Baird and BofA cut price targets, citing delays in activating third-party data center capacity.
  • About $325 million of third-quarter revenue was non-recurring, and Nebius ended the quarter with $7.4 billion in cash.
  • The Vineland site's operator, DataOne, was fined $1.1 million over unpermitted gas generators and faces a noise-complaint lawsuit from nearby residents.

Reactions

  • Baird analyst Rob Oliver cut his Nebius target to $200 from $340, keeping an Outperform rating and saying the delays introduce previously absent risk.
  • BofA cut its Nebius target to $265 from $310 while keeping a Buy rating, saying the outlook implies a fourth-quarter slowdown as launches slip into 2027.
  • Nebius CEO Arkady Volozh said none of the delayed capacity is canceled, that its own sites are on track or ahead of schedule, and that customers are paying more, earlier, and for longer.
  • Nebius CFO said the changes in 2026 guidance are just about timing, not demand.
  • CoreWeave fell 11%, NVIDIA 4%, and IREN 7% alongside Nebius in the November 13 selloff.
  • Microsoft was reported to be cooling on delayed third-party neocloud deals, including Nebius's, and tightening oversight of such projects.

Timeline newest first

  1. Nebius shares traded at $128.64 on November 13, 2026, after a 16.84% fall the prior session capped a 50.37% three-month slide from $259.20.
  2. Nebius said prepayments on its third-quarter contracts covered more than 100% of the associated capex, up from 50% to 60% in the second quarter.
  3. On November 13, Baird cut its Nebius price target to $200 from $340 and BofA cut its target to $265 from $310, citing delays activating third-party data center capacity.
  4. Nebius shares fell 13% to $111.34 on November 13, leaving the stock down 46% over the month.
  5. On its November 12 earnings call, Nebius laid out $40 billion in planned 2027 spending, funded by customer prepayments and loans backed by customer contracts.
  6. Nebius said DataOne's early wind-down of temporary generation at its Vineland, New Jersey site pushed Microsoft contract phases to Q2 2027; New Jersey regulators fined DataOne $1.1 million.
  7. Reports said Microsoft is cooling on delayed third-party neocloud deals, including Nebius's, and sent employees to the Vineland, New Jersey site.
  8. Nebius's Microsoft contract includes financial penalties for late delivery and lets Microsoft terminate affected service if dates are missed with no alternative capacity offered.
  9. On November 12 Nebius reported third-quarter revenue of $980.8 million, beating consensus, but guided 2026 revenue to the low end of its range and raised 2026 capex to $27 billion; shares fell 14%.
  10. Nebius set an initial 2027 revenue outlook of $12–13 billion and forecast 2027 capital spending of $40–45 billion, well above the $28.77 billion estimate.

Sources newest first

  • Nebius Plummeted 33% in 3 Months: High Target Price Predicting 220% Gains Holds Steady Ahead of Q3 Earnings as Firm Avoids Nvidia Entanglement247wallst.com· 28h

    A 24/7 Wall St. article examines Nebius Group's 50% three-month share collapse after it cut 2026 revenue guidance to $3–3.2 billion and lifted capex to around $27 billion, despite Q3 revenue of $980.8 million beating consensus. Analyst targets still imply large upside — Northland's $410 is the Street high — and 24/7 Wall St. suggests the decline may be excessive if prepayments keep covering capex and owned sites deliver on schedule, with management expecting $12–13 billion 2027 revenue.

  • Nebius Sinks 13% as Baird and BofA Slash Price Targets Over Data Center Delays; CoreWeave Tumbles 11%, NVIDIA Falls 4%247wallst.com· 29h

    A 247wallst.com article reports that Nebius Group fell 13% to $111.34 on November 13, 2026, after Baird cut its price target to $200 from $340 and BofA to $265 from $310 over delays activating third-party data center capacity, with the cuts following a Q3 revenue beat of $980.8 million alongside a trimmed 2026 outlook. CoreWeave slid 11% to $50.49 and NVIDIA dropped 4% to $159.49 after CEO Jensen Huang's November 12 resignation, and 247 Wall St. says all three depend on the same expansion cycle, with Nebius's delayed New Jersey capacity — which CEO Arkady Volozh insists is not canceled — the test of whether concerns ease.

  • Nebius tests the neocloud playbook with $40 billion in planned spending | TechCrunchtechcrunch.com· 2d

    TechCrunch reports that Nebius laid out $40 billion in planned 2027 spending on its earnings call, funded by customer prepayments and contract-backed loans, even as its up-to-$19.4 billion Microsoft contract faces delays at a Vineland, New Jersey data center months behind schedule, where DataOne drew a $1.1 million regulatory fine and a noise-complaint lawsuit. The company cut its 2026 revenue forecast by $200 million, while Bloomberg reports Microsoft is cooling on delayed third-party neocloud deals.

  • Nebius Tumbles 14% on Soft Guidance and Bigger Spending Plans; CoreWeave Sinks 10%, IREN Drops 7%247wallst.com· 2d

    247wallst.com's November 12 article by David Moadel reports Nebius Group down 14% to $133.67 after beating Q3 estimates with $980.8 million revenue but guiding 2026 revenue to the low end of its range and raising capital spending to $27 billion, with 2027 spending forecast at $40–45 billion. CoreWeave fell 10% and IREN 7% alongside Applied Digital, as the site says the market questions how fast AI build-out spending turns into profit; it also cites reports that NVIDIA's board may oust CEO Jensen Huang.

Background newest first

  • How Nvidia turmoil and a Democratic Congress could reshape the AI trade, according to ETF expertscnbc.com· 5h

    Nvidia's longest losing streak since 2012 and CEO Jensen Huang's resignation reshuffled the AI trade — the Nasdaq had its best week since August while AMD and Broadcom gained — as Democrats took control of Congress. ETF experts on CNBC's "ETF Edge" say rivals like AMD, Alphabet, and the hyperscalers could benefit, with Dan Ives keeping a buy rating on Nvidia and estimating the "blue tidal wave" could stall 10%–20% of planned data centers.

  • CoreWeave's Demand is There, $41.6B of Corporate Debt Remains: What This Means for Nebius and CoreWeave247wallst.com· 33h

    A 247wallst.com article by Alex Sirois compares CoreWeave's and Nebius Group's third-quarter results — CoreWeave with $3.66 billion revenue, $41.6 billion of corporate debt and a roughly $132.5 billion backlog, Nebius with $980.8 million revenue, more than $12 billion in new deals and $7.43 billion of cash — with both companies claiming demand for AI compute exceeds their capacity. Sirois judges that Nebius has the stronger funding position while CoreWeave carries greater leverage, and recommends watching CoreWeave's 2027 GPU contract renewals and whether Nebius's own sites can deliver $12–$13 billion of 2027 revenue.

  • Applied Digital Sinks 8% as Nebius Outlook and NVIDIA CEO Exit Hit AI Data Center Stocks; Cipher Digital Falls 4%, TeraWulf Slides 3%247wallst.com· 2d

    David Moadel reports on 247wallst.com that AI data center stocks fell on November 12, 2026 — Applied Digital down 8% to $16.45, Cipher Digital 4%, Core Scientific 5%, and TeraWulf 3% — after Nebius Group issued what he calls a weak outlook and Jensen Huang resigned as NVIDIA CEO. Moadel argues the drop highlights financing and tenant questions: Applied Digital's $113.1 million quarterly interest cost, $6.4 billion of debt, and reliance on CoreWeave weigh on it, though its $36 billion of contracted revenue supports optimism.

  • Buy Nebius' Bounce Even Though It's Still Down 30% Over a Month? One Analyst Predicts 165% Returns So It Is Tempting247wallst.com· 2d

    Alex Sirois's 247wallst.com article weighs whether to buy Nebius Group after its 15.44% bounce from a 26.36% monthly slide, citing $574.9 million in second-quarter AI Cloud revenue, Microsoft and Meta deals, and Northland's Street-high $410 target implying 165% upside. He sees the fundamentals as supporting the bulls but calls the $278.05 consensus target more realistic, and recommends watching the stock's reaction to third-quarter earnings.

  • Why the data center you dread might never even be built | TechCrunchtechcrunch.com· 3d

    TechCrunch's Equity podcast episode examines the data center boom's real-world obstacles — local opposition, permitting delays, and a scramble for electricity — with hosts Rebecca Bellan and Tim De Chant joined by Brent Nelson of Ascend Analytics to sort likely builds from projects that may never get off the ground, with billions in AI infrastructure investment at stake. The page also reports a Microsoft email outage becoming a global cloud crisis, Anthropic's launch of Claude Meetings, Elon Musk's Cybertruck deposit refunds, and claims about Jensen Huang's exit and alleged affairs.

  • CoreWeave turns to customer prepayments, shorter contracts to fund AI growth | TechCrunchtechcrunch.com· 3d

    TechCrunch reports that AI cloud provider CoreWeave is increasingly funding its growth through customer prepayments, contract-backed loans, and shorter deals — reporting $3.66 billion in revenue but a $709 million net loss — as CEO Michael Intrator says the company won't tap unsecured debt at current yields above 15%. TechCrunch argues the strategy could lift profits but hinges on unproven demand, with higher renewal and pricing risk.

  • Cloudflare Jumps 11%, Nebius Surges 9% as AI Cloud Stocks Defy NVIDIA's Slide; CoreWeave Rallies 6% on Wayve Deal247wallst.com· 5d

    A 247wallst.com article by David Moadel reports AI cloud stocks rallying on November 9, 2026 — Cloudflare up 11% after its earnings beat, Nebius 9% ahead of its report, CoreWeave 6% on a multi-year deal with autonomous driving startup Wayve — even as NVIDIA fell 5%. Cloudflare CEO Matthew Prince called it Cloudflare's best quarter ever, and the article recommends a conservative approach until Nebius reports November 12.

  • IREN Says New AI Cloud Customers Are Prepaying 90% of the Chips247wallst.com· 8d

    A 24/7 Wall St. article reports that IREN said new AI Cloud customers are prepaying about 90% of related GPU capex, including a five-year contract at about $22 million of annualized revenue per megawatt, after its stock fell 16.95% to $18.03 and rose 10.65% after hours. The article calls prepayments a sign of pricing power but flags heavy debt, reliance on a few large customers, and undisclosed terms, and recommends watching whether the ARR target arrives by February 2027 and how the $6 billion funding gap is covered.

  • The AI ‘credit card’ is getting costlier as CoreWeave bond yield tops 16%cnbc.com· 8d

    CNBC reports that borrowing costs for AI data center builders are climbing, with CoreWeave's 2032 bond yield topping 16% and credit default swaps rising sharply even for Nvidia, Broadcom, and Amazon.com, as markets weigh Democratic election wins that could bring moratoriums covering 45% of planned US capacity, per Goldman Sachs. Analysts still forecast heavy issuance ahead — $440 billion of hyperscaler debt in 2026 — while Jefferies' Christopher Wood says the "credit card will be taken away" as the most plausible end to the AI capex arms race.

  • AI Cloud Crash Puts CoreWeave and Nebius on Sale. Their Next Reports Decide What Happens Next247wallst.com· 8d

    A 24/7 Wall St. article by Trey Thoelcke examines why AI neoclouds CoreWeave and Nebius have lost roughly half their value since early October 2026, with the post-midterm selloff raising concerns that new state governments will slow the data center buildouts their growth depends on. Thoelcke argues CoreWeave's weakness is leverage while Nebius faces dilution and uneven revenue, and concludes Nebius enters its November 12 report with the stronger comeback case, CoreWeave's depending on margin expansion arriving on schedule when it reports November 10.

  • Musk Says "Data Centers In Space Looking Pretty Appealing Right Now" After Voters Sided Against Data Centers In 40 Of 41 Local Ballot Measures, As SpaceX, CoreWeave And Nebius Are Plunging Today247wallst.com· 9d

    247wallst.com reports Elon Musk's post, per 404 Media, that data centers in space look appealing after Fox Business and Ballotpedia counts showed voters backing restrictions or rejecting pro-development measures in 40 of 41 local data center ballot measures across 10 states, the lone exception Harwood, North Dakota. It also notes SpaceX, CoreWeave, and Nebius shares falling, SpaceX's $7.60 billion Super Intelligence revenue, and Gina Hinojosa's Texas win over Governor Greg Abbott.

  • IREN Sinks 9% After Report Links It to Microsoft's AI Spending Delay; Nebius Tumbles 11%, CoreWeave Slides 7%247wallst.com· 9d

    247wallst.com reports that IREN sank 9% to $19.70 on November 5, 2026, after a report citing unnamed sources said delays at its Childress site led Microsoft to push back planned capital expenditures, while Nebius fell 11% and CoreWeave 7% in a broader AI data center selloff. The site notes Democrat Gina Hinojosa's Texas governor win as a concern, and IREN was due to report Q1 FY2027 results that day, with analysts expecting a 9% sales decline.

  • How These Growth Stories Became Cautionary Debt Tales: CoreWeave Vs. Nebius247wallst.com· 9d

    Alex Sirois's 247wallst.com article compares CoreWeave and Nebius Group as AI growth stories now weighed down by debt: CoreWeave carries $51.608 billion in debt with a $626 million Q2 2026 net loss, while Nebius funds its buildout through prepayments, convertibles, and share sales. Sirois judges leverage the real divide between the two, giving Nebius the stronger balance sheet for now.

  • Exclusive: Data Center Cancellations Top $260 Billion in 2026heatmap.news· 5w

    Robinson Meyer's exclusive for Heatmap.news reports that, according to its Heatmap Pro data, at least $260 billion in data center investments were canceled in 2026 after sustained local opposition — including $130 billion in the third quarter, more than all of 2025 — and figures are likely an undercount. A Heatmap Pro–Embold poll found 75% of Americans would oppose a data center nearby, up from a roughly even split in 2025.

  • Are AI Datacenters Increasing Electric Bills for American Households?semianalysis.com· 36w

    SemiAnalysis's newsletter article argues that AI datacenters are indeed raising American electric bills, but that the fault lies with government policy and market design rather than AI itself: PJM's capacity auction jumped 9.3x to $270/MW-day on a simulated forecast, while Texas's ERCOT kept prices stable despite massive datacenter growth. SemiAnalysis forecasts PJM's 67 million residents will see bills rise about 15% in 2026, roughly $25-30 more per month, and says its own datacenter-construction tracking shows PJM's demand forecast is likely too optimistic.