Polls point to Coalition win as Victorian Labor seeks fourth term at 28 November election
Summary
- Victorians vote on 28 November 2026, with Ben Carroll's Labor seeking a fourth term after 12 years against the Coalition led by Jess Wilson and One Nation.
- Polls put the Coalition on about 31% of the primary vote, on track for majority government, with One Nation on 22% narrowly ahead of Labor on 21.8%.
- Labor's north-west Melbourne heartland is shifting, with voters citing crime, cost of living and alleged corruption in the Big Build; Carroll could struggle to hold Niddrie.
- At the campaign launches, Jess Wilson promised youth bootcamps, 3,000 extra police, tax cuts and treaty repeal; Carroll pledged $1.17 billion for 100,000 extra surgeries and free dental clinics.
- The Coalition and One Nation will preference each other above Labor; Labor will run an open ticket in Prahran and Caulfield and put One Nation last.
- Labor holds 54 of the 88 seats in Victoria's lower house; Carroll replaced Jacinta Allan as leader in September 2026.
Reactions
- Jess Wilson called the election the most consequential in decades and said Victoria was at a crossroads after 12 years of Labor.
- Labor called the Coalition's Dhurringile bootcamp plan a half-baked thought bubble, saying its own $204 million plan is fully costed.
- Labor minister Anthony Carbines called the Coalition's preference deal with One Nation nudge-nudge wink-wink and said Labor would put One Nation last.
- One Nation's Victorian leader Warren Pickering called Victoria the most fiscally and morally bankrupt state and said other Australians should not keep propping it up.
- Several One Nation candidates said they funded their own campaigns through a required $5,500 contribution, while the party spent $21,300 on Meta advertising against Labor's $2.81 million.
- Pauline Hanson forecast that pundits would be shocked by how well One Nation fares on 28 November.
Timeline newest first
Polls show the Coalition averaging 31% of the primary vote, on track for majority government, with One Nation on 22% narrowly ahead of Labor on 21.8%.
At Labor's Moonee Ponds launch, Ben Carroll pledged $1.17 billion for 100,000 extra surgeries and $195 million for 500,000 specialist appointments; Jess Wilson promised tax cuts and crime measures at the Liberal launch.
One Nation candidates said they fund their own campaigns through a required $5,500 contribution, while Populares analysis found the party spent $21,300 on Meta ads since 1 September.
Victorian Socialists launched a volunteer campaign with a candidate in every Victorian seat, pledging a 25% rent cut, 150,000 public homes and a state bank.
Sources newest first
Wipeout looms for Victorian Labor, with Melbourne heartland in revolt
Politico reports Victoria's Labor government faces a wipeout at the 28 November 2026 election, with its north-west Melbourne heartland in revolt over crime, cost of living, and alleged corruption in the Big Build. Polls put the Coalition on 31% on track for majority government, with One Nation on 22% narrowly ahead of Labor, and Ben Carroll could struggle to hold his own seat of Niddrie.
Rival promises as parties rally at Victorian election campaign launches
ABC News reports on the rival Victorian election campaign launches, held 13 days before the 28 November poll after three terms of Labor government, with the Liberals at Melbourne's Glasshouse and Labor at Moonee Ponds. Opposition Leader Jess Wilson promised youth bootcamps, 3,000 extra police, tax cuts and treaty repeal while calling it the most consequential election in decades; Premier Ben Carroll pledged $1.17 billion for 100,000 extra surgeries, 500,000 specialist appointments and free dental clinics, declaring Labor 'up for the fight'.
Liberals announce plans for teen prison bootcamp for young offenders
An ABC Shepparton article reports that Victorian Opposition Leader Jess Wilson has announced a Coalition plan to run a bootcamp for young offenders aged 14 to 17 at the closed Dhurringile Prison near Murchison, based on Queensland's Circuit Breaker program. Labor calls it a "half-baked thought bubble" and says its own $204 million plan is fully costed.
Young Victorian voters torn between disillusionment, optimism
An ABC Goulburn Murray article looks at young Victorian voters ahead of November's state election, which the Victorian Electoral Commission says 18-to-44-year-olds, making up 44 per cent of the vote, could decide. Many say they feel uninformed and rely on social media and word of mouth, are turning to alternative parties amid One Nation's surge since 2025 — including about 100 students marching against it in Bendigo — and voice concerns from student debt and rents to Wodonga's buses, with Charlie Bradbury planning a gender-focused vote and Sarah Clayton wanting more politics in schools.
Questions remain whether Victoria's election is tackling the big issues
An ABC News analysis by state political reporter Richard Willingham finds Victoria's November 28 election campaign short on stand-out policies, with crime a major voter issue and polls putting Liberal leader Jess Wilson ahead. Psychiatrist Pat McGorry links rising violent crime to deteriorating mental health services, saying 'If you are really serious about tackling crime you need to get serious about treating mental health,' and the article expects Labor's campaign to turn more negative in the final fortnight.
Your guide to minor parties in the 2026 Victorian state election
ABC's guide to the minor parties in the 2026 Victorian election says almost 20 are fielding candidates, including parties founded to exploit group voting tickets. It explains that Victoria's recent abolition of that system means such parties can no longer redirect preferences, and directs readers to the Victorian Electoral Commission to find their electorate.
Australians shouldn’t prop up ‘bankrupt’ Victoria, says One Nation's local leader
Politico reports that One Nation's Victorian leader Warren Pickering, running in the 28 November state election, calls Victoria "the most fiscally and morally bankrupt state" and says other Australians shouldn't keep propping it up as its debt rises to AU$160 billion. With One Nation polling 22% and Labor third, a hung parliament is possible, though voters are forecast to elect Jess Wilson's Coalition.
One Nation candidates say they are funding their own Victorian election campaigns as party keeps purse shut
One Nation candidates in winnable Victorian seats say they are funding their own campaigns through a required $5,500 contribution, reimbursed only if they win 4% of first preferences, while the party has spent just $21,300 on Meta ads. Pauline Hanson predicts pundits will be shocked by the party's result on 28 November.
One Nation Victoria candidate apologises for slew of offensive comments about lesbians, Indians and Julia Gillard
Guardian Australia reports that One Nation's Greenvale candidate Chris Moore apologised for offensive Facebook posts from 2010–2012, including slurs about Indians and lesbians, a burqa-rubbish-bag comparison, and a crude image of Julia Gillard, calling them unthoughtful posts that do not reflect who he is today. The party has not disendorsed Moore despite dumping two other Victorian candidates, Franco Guardiani and Matthew Collins, over their own social media comments.
Victorian One Nation candidate dumped over Hitler comments
ABC News reports that One Nation has dumped its Victorian candidate for Preston, Franco Guardiani, over social media posts praising Adolf Hitler, including labelling him the 'GOAT', and Guardiani confirmed the account was his. The party also earlier dumped Melbourne candidate Matthew Collins over misogynistic posts, conceded its vetting needs improvement, and its Victorian leader Warren Pickering said anyone holding such views has no place in One Nation.
Victoria election 2026: Victorian Liberals do preference deal with One Nation as Labor snub Greens in key inner-city seat
Guardian Australia reports that Victoria's Coalition and One Nation plan to preference each other above Labor at the November 2026 election, while Labor sources say the party will run an open ticket in Prahran and Caulfield, possibly costing the Greens the preferences they need to win Prahran back from Liberal Rachel Westaway. Jess Wilson said the Coalition would put Labor, the Greens and the Socialists at the bottom of its ticket, and Labor minister Anthony Carbines called the deal "nudge-nudge wink-wink" while pledging One Nation last.
One Nation dumps Victorian election candidate who praised Adolf Hitler as ‘GOAT’
One Nation has disendorsed Franco Guardiani, its Victorian election candidate for Preston, after posts from his private social media emerged, including a deleted reply calling Hitler the GOAT, Islamophobic comments, and engagement with the anti-immigrant group Knights Templar International. Victorian leader Warren Pickering said "as soon as we became aware, we acted," adding that anyone holding such views has no place in the party.
The Coalition plans to scrap Victoria’s treaty with First Peoples if it wins the election – but is that what voters want?
A Guardian Australia feature follows Together for Treaty volunteers door-knocking in Melbourne's affluent Kew seat as the Coalition, whose leader Jess Wilson vows to repeal Victoria's treaty laws within 100 days of winning the 28 November 2026 election, argues scrapping treaty would save $948.3m over a decade, figures Labor disputes. The piece details the treaty structure created by the Statewide Treaty Act 2025, including the Gellung Warl representative body, and reports a YouGov poll for Common Threads finding 58% of respondents said scrapping it is out of touch with their priorities.
Liberal bus crashes into shop awning on its first outing of Victorian election campaign
A Guardian article reports that the Victorian Liberals' campaign bus, the Jess Express, reversed into a Bentleigh jewellery store's awning on its first outing of the election campaign; no one was hurt, and owner James Oppedisano learned of the damage via calls and a text from the party. Recent Newspoll figures put the Coalition ahead 55-45, with Victorians voting on 28 November.
Join our campaign!
Victorian Socialists' campaign video recruits volunteers to back a socialist running in every Victorian seat, touting a volunteer-run operation unlike the major parties. It pledges to fight privatization, billionaire interests, and One Nation, and calls for a 25% rent cut, 150,000 public homes, a state bank, and politicians on a worker's wage.
Background newest first
Footscray - VIC Electorate, Candidates, Results
The ABC's election guide profiles the Footscray electorate ahead of the 2026 Victorian state election: a Labor-held inner-west Melbourne seat held without interruption since 1927, where sitting MP Katie Hall faces 14 rivals including Greens candidate Elena Pereyra. The guide says the Greens cut Labor's margin to just over 4% in 2022 and could win the seat if Labor's vote keeps declining.
The moment Melbourne builders were made to 'bend the knee' to the CFMEU
An ABC News report covers the royal commission into corruption on Victoria's Big Build, whose first hearings examined the 2022 CFMEU takeover of a Sunbury level crossing removal, where contractors told the inquiry they were made to "bend the knee" to the union at taxpayer cost. Commissioner Chris Kourakis criticised the government agency VIDA's redacted notebook and late disclosures, saying public servants have a duty to Victorians.
Neo-Nazis pledge to campaign to make Hanson prime minister
smh.com.au· 9w
Paul Sakkal reports for the Sydney Morning Herald that Australia's neo-Nazi movement pledges to campaign to make Pauline Hanson prime minister and back One Nation if the High Court overturns a ban on its new party. Labor and the Coalition have called on Hanson to reject the support; she had earlier admitted her party was being 'infiltrated by extremists', and she met Restore Britain leader Rupert Lowe, whose far-right party has links to banned neo-Nazi groups.
Former VicRoads staff blame privatisation for state's crumbling roads
ABC Ballarat reports that former VicRoads staff blame Victoria's crumbling roads on privatised construction and maintenance since the Kennett era, saying neglected resealing, higher private costs, and lost skilled workers drove the decline. With an Auditor-General report finding about 48 per cent of state roads in poor or very poor condition in 2024, Ben Carroll pledges to bring maintenance back in-house if re-elected, while the Liberal-National coalition promises $5 billion over four years for repairs.
