Did the Redistricting Wars Backfire on Republicans? In a Word, No.
Nate Cohn's New York Times analysis argues the redistricting wars did not backfire on Republicans: though Democrats won the 2026 midterms so overwhelmingly they overcame the new maps, Cohn preliminarily estimates the G.O.P. still gained four to seven seats from mid-cycle redistricting, with Texas alone a net win despite Democratic gains there. He adds that gerrymandering overall gave Republicans a far bigger structural advantage — nearly 20 to 27 seats versus party-blind simulated maps — enough that without it Democrats might have neared a veto-proof House majority.
