In an essay on hegemon.substack.com, Seva Gunitsky asks why Russia is making ever-grander demands while losing: at Abu Dhabi talks its delegation presented imaginary maps of captured Ukrainian towns, which Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff dismissed as fiction, even as its budget deficit grows and Michael Kofman judges the army having its worst year since early 2023. Gunitsky weighs four explanations, from Putin's information bubble to stalling, domestic costs of peace, and Russian hope of extracting more from Americans, and judges Washington's signals — pressure on Kyiv and talk of grand bargains — the likely decisive factor.