The Guardian reports the Global Carbon Budget assessment, presented at Cop31 in Antalya, finding fossil fuel emissions edging down about 0.4% in 2026 as war-driven oil and gas prices and cheap solar and wind push countries off fossil fuels. But emissions from deforestation more than offset this, lifting total emissions from 42.8bn to a forecast 43.3bn tonnes, and scientists including Glen Peters and Bill Hare warn the dip may be temporary, with under four years left before the 1.5C carbon budget is exhausted.