Treasury Bonds Now Pay More Than Stocks Earn by a Gap Last Seen in 2009. Warren Buffett Warned in 1999 What That Does to Stock PricesA 247wallst.com article reports that the 10-year Treasury, at 4.98%, now out-yields the S&P 500's earnings by 1.13 points — the widest gap since 2009 — and revisits Warren Buffett's 1999 warning that rates "act on financial valuations the way gravity acts on matter," citing the dot-com era's steep losses when the gap was high. It argues the gap is a reason to hold bonds for near-year spending, not a bet against stocks, while Wall Street forecasts the S&P 500 will out-earn the bond within a year.