A Daily Kos post by Quaoar reports that Russia's Yaroslavl refinery went up in flames, with commenters weighing in: Grumpynerd estimates about 12% of Russian refinery capacity was offline and says the economy needs roughly 3.8 million barrels a day, Quaoar quotes OSINT Varta on a Ukrainian strike damaging the Kamensky Plant, and Timay11 says Russian losses passed 54,000 for October 2026. Among predictions and pleas, Grumpynerd expects Russia's operational refinery capacity to drop over time, Lemay50 forecasts Trump will prove an unusually weak lame duck, and Ecortez urges Ukraine to mount a decapitation-scale strike on the Omsk refinery.