Prediction Markets Face Their Biggest Accuracy Test Yet: The MidtermsA New York Times article by Stuart A. Thompson says prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are courting scrutiny and betting volume ahead of the 2026 midterms, which they hope will prove their accuracy after misses in Brazil's election and the Los Angeles mayoral primary. Experts split over whether the odds surpass polls, with some citing studies of their calibration and others saying they mostly echo polls and online gamblers' beliefs.