Opinion | The pollsters who ‘nailed’ 2024 just whiffed on 2026
An ms.now opinion piece by a writer tied to the polling outlet FiftyPlusOne finds that 2026 midterm polls underestimated Democrats by 3.4 points on average across 373 polls, the fourth-largest miss since 1998, and argues the GOP-leaning firms praised after 2024 likely owed their edge to pro-Republican bias. The author advises analysts not to push polls in either direction in 2028, noting Donald Trump quoted himself questioning whether the election was honest while Scott Colom blamed safe-Race handicapping for his near-miss in Mississippi.
